Drake London Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Drake London Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+272/-471).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +335 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +272.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Drake London has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 34.4% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Drake London has received a monstrous 26.1% of his offense's air yards this year: 78th percentile among WRs.
Drake London's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
Drake London has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching a mere 59.4% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 11th percentile among wide receivers
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.4%) versus wideouts this year (61.4%).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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