Dorian Thompson-Robinson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dorian Thompson-Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Dorian Thompson-Robinson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-245).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
The Browns O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.8% red zone pass rate.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed the 8th-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.15 per game since the start of last season.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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