Dorian Thompson-Robinson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dorian Thompson-Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Dorian Thompson-Robinson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-188/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +152 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 132.9 total plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.7 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football in the red zone (54.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.
This year, the fierce Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up a mere 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
The Steelers linebackers project as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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