Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Dontrell Hilliard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+116/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
Dontrell Hilliard's ground effectiveness (5.61 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (93rd percentile among RBs).
Dontrell Hilliard has been among the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.47 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 84th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dontrell Hilliard to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (3.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.6% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.