Dontrell Hilliard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Dontrell Hilliard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Dontrell Hilliard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
Dontrell Hilliard's 17.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for running backs.
Dontrell Hilliard has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.4 receptions per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.