D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D'Onta Foreman

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 46.9% run rate.
The Chicago O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
D'Onta Foreman has grinded out 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (78th percentile).
With an excellent rate of 4.41 adjusted yards per carry (75th percentile), D'Onta Foreman rates among the leading running backs in the league this year.
D'Onta Foreman grades out as one of the leading running backs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.24 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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