D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-165/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to earn 17.2 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (55.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.9% in games he has played).
D'Onta Foreman has generated 51.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (75th percentile).

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.