D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D'Onta Foreman

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to total 18.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (59.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
D'Onta Foreman has run for substantially fewer yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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