D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+149/-207).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +153 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the end zone this week (64.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-most TDs in the NFL (1.00 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 8th-worst LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 4th-least run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 38.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.
D'Onta Foreman has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in football among running backs (1st percentile).