D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+163/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -222 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 46.5% red zone run rate.
D'Onta Foreman has garnered 54.9% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
D'Onta Foreman has run for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.54 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.