D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D'Onta Foreman

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+149/-213).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +194 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers rank as the 8th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 51.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (73.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.8% in games he has played).
D'Onta Foreman has run for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among running backs (84th percentile).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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