D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+183/-266).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +191 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +183.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers rank as the 8th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
D'Onta Foreman has received 56.7% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
D'Onta Foreman has run for 0.44 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (85th percentile).
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.