D'Onta Foreman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) this year.
The model projects D'Onta Foreman to accrue 3.1 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
While D'Onta Foreman has earned 2.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Chicago's passing attack in this game at 8.2%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84.8%) versus running backs since the start of last season (84.8%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.72 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.
D'Onta Foreman has been among the weakest RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 2.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 6th percentile among running backs.