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D'Onta Foreman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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When talking about air yards, D'Onta Foreman ranks in the towering 88th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a massive 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).D'Onta Foreman's 9.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 3.0.D'Onta Foreman has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (9.0) this season than he did last season (2.0).The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus RBs this year, yielding 6.61 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 45.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects the Bears offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.39 seconds per snap.Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 34.8 per game) this year.In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year.D'Onta Foreman has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among RBs, completing just 71.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 20th percentile.
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