Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Donovan Peoples-Jones

NFL · Player Props

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:51 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback PJ Walker.
A passing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 66.2 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Browns grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric team in the league (58.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.
Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has notched far fewer air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Donovan Peoples-Jones has been relied on much less in his offense's air attack.

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