Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-100/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has run a route on 83.9% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has notched a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wide receivers.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Donovan Peoples-Jones's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 60.3% to 51.1%.
Donovan Peoples-Jones's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 5.68 yards-per-target compared to a 9.45 figure last year.