Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+363/-723).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -653 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -723.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has accrued a colossal 61.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wide receivers.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (69.4%) vs. wideouts this year (69.4%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Donovan Peoples-Jones's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 60.3% to 49.7%.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.