Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Donovan Peoples-Jones

NFL · Player Props

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+374/-762).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -693 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -762.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
THE BLITZ projects Donovan Peoples-Jones to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (14.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.8% in games he has played).
Donovan Peoples-Jones has accumulated a colossal 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Donovan Peoples-Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 60.3% to 47.5%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.

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