Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Donovan Peoples-Jones

NFL · Player Props

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-443).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +285 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +265.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects Donovan Peoples-Jones to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.8% in games he has played).
Donovan Peoples-Jones has notched a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wide receivers.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.5%).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Donovan Peoples-Jones's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 60.3% to 51.1%.

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