Donald Parham Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Donald Parham

NFL · Player Props

Donald Parham

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Donald Parham Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Donald Parham's 38.1% Route Participation Rate this year signifies a material gain in his air attack workload over last year's 25.2% rate.
The Lions safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Donald Parham's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 83.6% to 63.5%.

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