Donald Parham Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Donald Parham

NFL · Player Props

Donald Parham

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Donald Parham Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
Donald Parham has totaled a whopping 23.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Donald Parham's 14.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season signifies a significant regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 21.0 rate.
Donald Parham's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 83.6% to 67.8%.
Donald Parham checks in as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.02 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.

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