Donald Parham Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Donald Parham

NFL · Player Props

Donald Parham

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Donald Parham Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
In this contest, Donald Parham is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.7 targets.
While Donald Parham has been responsible for 7.6% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this game at 13.0%.
The Packers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency vs. TEs this year, allowing 7.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Donald Parham's 66.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys an impressive reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 83.6% mark.
The Packers defense has given up the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) vs. tight ends this year.

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