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DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.10 seconds per snap.D.K. Metcalf has run a route on 92.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.The model projects D.K. Metcalf to total 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.D.K. Metcalf ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 4.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Seahawks are a 5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.D.K. Metcalf ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching just 58.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receiversThis year, the fierce Chicago Bears defense has yielded a feeble 64.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 10th-smallest rate in football.
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