DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-104/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accrue 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 28.5% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf's pass-catching performance been refined this season, accumulating 5.6 yards per game compared to a measly 4.4 last season.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.