DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+141/-191).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to total 7.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 26.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 94th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
DK Metcalf's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.1% to 84.8%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.