DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

reorder

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accumulate 9.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf's 68.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 96th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.