DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has been among the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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