DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The model projects D.K. Metcalf to garner 8.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
When talking about air yards, D.K. Metcalf grades out in the towering 96th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accruing an astounding 101.0 per game.
D.K. Metcalf's 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 94th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
D.K. Metcalf has been among the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Giants pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.5%).

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