DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D.K. Metcalf to garner 8.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
D.K. Metcalf has notched a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.
D.K. Metcalf's 66.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 95th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
D.K. Metcalf has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 19th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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