DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accrue 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 28.5% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has notched many more air yards this year (104.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) to WRs this year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.22 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.