DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accumulate 9.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has put up quite a few more air yards this year (103.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
DK Metcalf's skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling a mere 2.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 rate last season.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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