DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-140/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has compiled far more air yards this year (103.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
DK Metcalf's 68.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 96th percentile for WRs.
DK Metcalf has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 65.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
DK Metcalf's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, averaging a mere 2.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.