DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 10.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has totaled significantly more air yards this year (104.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
DK Metcalf's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, accumulating a measly 2.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.97 mark last season.
The New York Jets defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 118.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.6%).
The New York Jets pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus wideouts this year, yielding 6.98 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

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