DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (+105/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to garner 9.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 28.0% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has put up significantly more air yards this year (103.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
DK Metcalf has been among the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a stellar 67.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
DK Metcalf has been among the weakest wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.61 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

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