DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (+109/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.38 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 28.6% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
DK Metcalf has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 7.38 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 18th percentile among WRs
DK Metcalf has been among the weakest WRs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.