DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 27.2% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has totaled far more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
DK Metcalf has been among the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a measly 7.49 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile among wide receivers
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.