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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-180).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

DK Metcalf has put up quite a few more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).

DK Metcalf's 68.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (32.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.9% in games he has played).

DK Metcalf has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 59.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile among WRs

The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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