DK Metcalf Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+155/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
DK Metcalf has notched many more air yards this year (104.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
DK Metcalf's 69.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 95th percentile for wideouts.
DK Metcalf's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 60.1% to 65.6%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (32.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (41.2% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has given up the 4th-least TDs through the air in football to wideouts: 0.40 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.