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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-257).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +178.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

DK Metcalf has put up far more air yards this season (103.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).

DK Metcalf's 69.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 93rd percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (30.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).

The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 5th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.

The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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