DK Metcalf Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-254).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +176.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
DK Metcalf has accumulated a whopping 94.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf's 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 87th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (31.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.