DK Metcalf Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-285).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 32.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has put up a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf's 66.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 95th percentile for wideouts.
DK Metcalf grades out in the 98th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.67 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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