DK Metcalf Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-268).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +187 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 39.3% this year, which ranks in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has accrued significantly more air yards this year (109.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
DK Metcalf's 71.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 97th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.8 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.77 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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