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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-189).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +142 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.38 seconds per snap.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

DK Metcalf has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (102.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

DK Metcalf's 71.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 95th percentile for wide receivers.

DK Metcalf's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.1% to 65.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (34.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (42.9% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

More DK Metcalf Player Props

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