D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 23, 2024 12:02 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Bears as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, D.J. Moore is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 10.1 targets.
D.J. Moore's 75.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 97th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.9 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Bears grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Colts linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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