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D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-194/+139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -194.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are heavy -9.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.

The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.3 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bears to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

D.J. Moore has been much less involved in his offense's air attack this year (24.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (30.0%).

D.J. Moore's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 73.2% to 69.4%.

This year, the formidable Lions defense has given up a puny 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best rate in the league.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's safety corps has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in football.

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