D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to garner 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Moore's play as a receiver has gotten better this year, compiling 5.5 adjusted receptions vs just 3.7 last year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.6%) to WRs this year (59.6%).
The Saints linebackers grade out as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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