D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among WRs.
D.J. Moore has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
D.J. Moore has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D.J. Moore's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.7% to 46.7%.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has given their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.