D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+129/-179).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -179.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 8.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
D.J. Moore's receiving talent has tailed off this year, notching just 3.7 yards per game vs 5.5 last year.

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