D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.3% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 9.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore's receiving talent has tailed off this year, averaging just 3.8 yards per game vs 5.5 last year.

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