D.J. Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) this year.
With a top-tier 95.3% Route Participation% (95th percentile) this year, D.J. Moore ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
The model projects D.J. Moore to notch 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
D.J. Moore has posted many more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (90.0 per game).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.72 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.
The Vikings safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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